SolGold Agrees to JCC Acquisition, SHFE Copper Surges Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, December 26, 2025
Futures: Affected by the Christmas holiday, LME copper was closed overnight. The most-traded SHFE copper 2602 contract opened higher with a gap overnight, opening at 96,410 yuan/mt. The price center shifted downward initially, probing to 96,900 yuan/mt, then gradually rose as bulls increased their positions, touching a high of 97,960 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound at high levels, finally closing at 97,680 yuan/mt, an increase of 2.51%. Trading volume decreased by 130,000 lots to 118,000 lots, while open interest increased by 3,241 lots to 244,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On December 25, according to SMM, the CSPT held its Q4 2025 General Manager Office Meeting in Shanghai on the morning of December 25. The CSPT Q4 2025 General Manager Meeting decided not to set a reference figure for spot copper concentrate TCs for Q1 2026.
(2) On December 25, SolGold stated that it had agreed to be acquired by its largest shareholder, Jiangxi Copper Corporation, in a deal valued at £867 million.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of December 25, the SHFE copper 2601 contract fluctuated upward in early trading, rising to around 95,230 yuan/mt by the end of the morning session. The inter-month price spread was mostly between C220 and C180. As trading for cargoes with invoices dated next month began today, spot liquidity is expected to remain low, and premiums are forecast to continue declining.
(2) Guangdong: On December 25, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was traded at a discount of 220-150 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 185 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 300-280 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 290 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,715 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 94,610 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream buyers remained cautious about replenishing stocks amid persistently high copper prices, spot premiums continued to decrease, and overall trading activity was sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On December 25, warrant prices were $50-60/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; bill of lading (B/L) prices were $48-60/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $4-16/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late December and early to mid-January.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 on December 25, the futures closing price was 95,640 yuan/mt, up 420 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -330 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of secondary copper raw materials remained unchanged MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,600-82,800 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,944 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,445 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, some enterprises recently reported that tax authorities are verifying the authenticity of "reverse invoicing". If a natural person denies having any transaction with the scrap utilization enterprise, the tax authorities will impose penalties on the enterprise. Some enterprises stated that ensuring the authenticity of "reverse invoicing" transactions poses significant challenges for their procurement departments. To ensure normal production, enterprises recently prioritize purchasing secondary copper raw materials that include tax invoices.
Price: On the macro front, this week's data showing rising US unemployment and inflation pulling back more than expected strengthened expectations for a January interest rate cut. Additionally, persistent overseas copper flows to North America, combined with expectations for domestic copper cathode production cuts, sustained market concerns over tightening global supply, boosting copper prices to break through 97,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, fundamentals maintained a tight pattern with low import arrivals and normal domestic arrivals. Demand side, persistently high copper prices significantly suppressed downstream procurement demand. Inventory side, as of Thursday, December 25, SMM mainstream region inventory increased 14.96% compared to Monday and was up 88,200 mt YoY. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a high-level, rangebound fluctuating trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]